PhD Uncertainties: The Other Side I Didn’t Know

How do I see a PhD? In my last post I metaphorically compare PhD to a rollercoaster. I actually meant it, but now I am more serious about it. It is a rollercoaster indeed, there is no doubt about it. That time I was talking about one side of it I knew, but not the side I didn’t know, which I will be talking about (I am confidently convinced that PhD has more sides than that of the dice in the Alice in the Borderland TV series).

One part of this side is about inevitable uncertainties, which is general, and the second part is about my PhD, especially how the bar is higher than I thought. Let me take you off the tenterhooks and dive into both parts.

Before I dive into the post itself, I have to accept that this journey is challenging and forcing me to live beyond my insecurities. Nevertheless, I am grateful to the One Basin CRC for exposing me to this experience; it provides a unique intellectual boost. I write these posts because, as I navigate this experience, I am learning things that I find useful for current or prospective PhD students to understand; that is why I am trying to share with you typical surprises and stunts to expect along the way.

PhD is a rollercoaster
PhD is a rollercoaster (source: Google Gemini).

Inevitable Uncertainty

So far, one of the things I realised is that there is this common (let me not call it a problem) experience of uncertainty in the direction of the PhD. That being said, if someone tells you more than a thousand times that they had things under control in the first year of their PhD, just politely nod your head left and right and gently say, “Nah!” or “Nice joke.”

On a serious note, I have talked to different people who are at different stages relative to their PhD, be it that they are halfway, at the end, postdoctoral, etc. One thing I have learned from them is that you can’t just hope that you will start and immediately understand what you’re doing. A friend of mine even warned me, “Don’t be surprised if it takes you 2 years to understand what your research is about,” and he also shared an example of someone who was 2.5 years into their PhD and suddenly had a moment of clarity while reading something, exclaiming, “Oh! Now I understand what I have been doing all along.” Now I understand what I have been doing all along.”

That sounds weird, doesn’t it? I wish I was lying, but unfortunately I am not. If you want to fact-check, try to ask some people who have done a PhD to see. A PhD is uncertain in many ways and for different reasons.

One of the reasons is that you want to contribute to the knowledge, but you don’t know, in fact, how much of it exists. Of course, everyone wants fresh ideas, not research “remixes”. The problem itself is a massive uncertainty that is impossible to outrun (or outsmart) but possible to overcome. There is this common experience of PhD student colleagues I talk to: you actually start with this “smart idea” that you want to develop into groundbreaking knowledge, selling it to everyone here and there, but your hopes plummet when you realise that there is a peer-reviewed paper that was written about the very smart idea you have 20-ish years ago.

It is well known that our role as PhD students is to be able to overcome this uncertainty by iterating our thoughts. I liked how Prof. Inger Mewburn described it in “How to Tame Your PhD”: just identify this vacant corner and stand there; that will do. After all, you don’t want to reinvent the wheel. So far, my experience is that as I iterate my thoughts, I feel that I am moving closer and closer to my corner. This is one of the uncertainties that every one of us faces before anything else.

The other thing I touched on in my previous post is multitasking and priority. I think that I have to reflect back on this due to the conversation I had during dinner with One Basin CRC PhD colleagues. Unsurprisingly, I learnt a lot.

I was particularly curious about how they manage multitasking and why one of them was interested in the pressure to meet deadlines. One of my colleagues provided me with a new perspective on managing tasks, referencing the book “The 7 Secrets of Highly Successful PhD Students”, which discusses how to set priorities based on frequency of emphasis. Although she sarcastically remarked that the title is not appealing, I plan to read it anyway!

PhD is like maze
PhD is like maze, uncertainty and confusion is inevitable.

Industry PhD

In Goondiwindi, during a panel discussion, Prof. Ariella asked, “What keeps you up at night?” My colleague Miltone, while smiling, replied, “Of course my PhD keeps me up every night,” in what seemed like a joke (even though I know it was serious). I fully concur with this response, as it evidently conveyed a powerful message. I recently realised that my PhD is more than just a source of stress; it is significant enough to keep me awake at night.

What worries me more is when I talk to someone at an event or conference, trying to sell them the idea of my PhD, and they genuinely express interest, excitement, and hopes that it can be part of a solution. It sounds like I should be pleased instead, shouldn’t I?

The worry comes from the fact that this PhD is beyond just contributing to knowledge but also knowledge that will contribute to a real-world solution, which sets the bar high and leaves me confused and seriously judging myself on whether I am preaching what I will practice.

It does not mean that I sell my PhD idea hard, but it is itself clearly a real-world problem that grabs people’s attention by the time I explain what my PhD is about. I can say that this may turn out in two ways, maybe a breakthrough for my future, maybe too much weight on my shoulders; all perspectives make total sense depending on the way I consider it. I think that this is where insecurities and excitement may strike simultaneously.

What I Know Now

Did you notice that my title reads “didn’t”? It means I know something now, I have some knowledge to share, and I believe it’s worth putting it out because “half a loaf is better than none”, right? If you’re thinking about jumping into a PhD, hopefully you might catch a glimpse of what’s ahead. I am fully aware that this journey will undoubtedly be throwing in some unexpected twists and turns! I am certain that more is coming, but I will share whatever I know for now anyway.

The first thing I have learned is that the more you acknowledge your limited knowledge, the easier it becomes to adapt and change directions. A PhD is an enemy of rigidity because however locked in you are on your idea, be ready for surprises and unexpected stunts that can make things get super messy. For instance, as previously mentioned, anticipate that this 20-year-old scanned, hard-to-read paper will turn your beautiful idea into ashes.

Second, understand where you’re strong and head there. Even though I mentioned flexibility, avoid being so flexible that you stray too far from your core focus; this could lead to more disastrous outcomes. Just find somewhere you are comfortable and confident in your ability to advance, as a PhD can be as quick as a finger snap.

Honestly, besides what other people told me, apparently a PhD is notoriously a terrible laboratory for invention, in case you plan to invent something, after all. For instance, even though my PhD holds potential to provide solution, it is still a tiny bit of the whole solution that I cannot say that I will solve every problems I see in the field in the window of my program.

My take is simple, don’t bite off more than what you can chew! If you start by scanning the horizon of the workload that you are likely to get in your PhD, it will be easier for you to be flexible to change directions (whenever it’s necessary). Otherwise, you can get stuck into the unknown. That is the other side I didn’t know.

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